Russia vs Ukraine: World War 3?

Over the course of the last 3 years, the world has faced its darkest moments in the recent history. This is inclusive majorly of the COVID-19 pandemic, the crippling economy, and most recently, the emergence of a potential World War. Although this war has been in motion over the last few years, the whole militant situation stirred up since the beginning of 2022 when Russia made detrimental and catastrophic advances towards the Ukrainian territories.

Vladimir Putin’s justification with respect to the bombardment on Ukraine, a land home to 44 million people, was that modern-day Russia could not feel safe with Ukraine being a constant threat to all Russian citizens. His initial idea was to overrun the nation and depose the government, thereby ending Ukraine’s desire to join the NATO alliance. Calling it a special military operation, the Russian forces aim to demilitarise and de-nazify the rest of Ukraine, and plan on not stopping the use of any amount of force. Although many lives have already been lost and shattered, most recently the updates state that Putin no longer aims at overthrowing the government, and wants to get hold of Crimea and eastern Ukraine while establishing neutral land.

Dating Back in History

The whole ideology behind a “neutral Ukraine” goes back in time ever since Ukraine achieved independence. Putin’s vision is to gain overall control over neighbouring regions to rebuild the Russian Empire, as stated by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The backfoot position as of now is speculated to be the result of the Russian military’s shortcomings in the face of a strong Ukrainian resistance.

• With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became independent and the same act pushed its limits to the West – both in EU and NATO.
• Putin’s understanding amidst all of this stands as the thought that Ukrainians and Russians are the same people, and hence he plans to rebuild the Soviet Union.
• In 2013 he pressed Ukraine's pro-Russian leader, Viktor Yanukovych, not to sign a deal with the European Union, prompting protests that ultimately ousted the Ukrainian in February 2014.
• Russia retaliated in 2014 by seizing Ukraine's southern region of Crimea, backing separatists who have fought Ukrainian forces in an eight-year war that has claimed 14,000 lives.
• There was a ceasefire, and a 2015 Minsk peace deal that was never implemented. Just before his invasion, Putin tore up the peace agreement and recognised two Russian-backed statelets as independent from Ukraine.
• As he sent in the troops, he accused NATO of threatening "our historic future as a nation", claiming without foundation that NATO countries wanted to bring war to Crimea.

Military Comparison: Who’s Stronger?

The comparison is often considered to be a moot point when it comes to this war, since Russia’s military force has individual assets at all fronts that can overthrow the Ukrainian military at any point of time, head-to-head. Multiple countries have provided their support to Ukraine in this hour, although military support has been almost near to nothing.

Here are some stats that give a broader idea regarding the battling fronts.

When it comes to nuclear power, since the dissolution of Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine received all nuclear warheads post-independence, making it the 3^rd largest nuclear power globally. These weapons were disposed of relatively quickly in Ukraine. They then joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty three years later, in 1994. Russian forces moved and disassembled all of the warheads in 1996.

Russia has conducted over 700 nuclear weapons tests, and currently owns 6490 warheads, slightly lesser than that of U.S.A. The Tsar Bomba, with a blast yield of 50 megatons of TNT, is the world’s largest bomb.

Made. In. Russia. That gives us a fair idea.

Casualties and the Cost of War

As of now, although Russia does not aim at targeting civilians, over 840 Ukrainian lives have been lost with 1400 wounded. According to the UN human rights office, the toll is much higher.

Furthermore, from 4 a.m. on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation's armed attack against Ukraine started, to 24:00 midnight on 22 March 2022 (local time), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 2,571 civilian casualties in the country: 977 killed and 1,594 injured.

Hence, it can be clearly seen at this point that the effects of this war are clearly detrimental like any other war, but with the possibility of a nuclear head-to-head battle, this shall lead to other countries getting involved forcibly. This shall create a situation which could be avoided if it was dealt with peacefully. With COVID-19 and its variants causing countless deaths globally till date, the world could really benefit by avoiding a potential World War. Just like it can at all times, irrespective of the global situation.